538 on the Specter fallout

Saw this in 538's newest Senate seat rankings, more on the Specter party-switch and exactly why he did it:

A Republican comeback is unlikely if the uber-conservative Pat Toomey is the Republican nominee. But if ex-Gov. Tom Ridge runs -- and wins -- instead, he would be a formidable opponent. The catch is that it isn't clear how Ridge, like Specter a moderate, pro-choice Republican, will escape the problems that drove Specter from the party, as what's left of the GOP base in Pennsylvania is highly conservative and pro-life.

Looks like the same factors that influenced Specter will be in play for a long time. Here's the link: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/05/senate-rankings-may-2009-edition.html